A Major Islamic Terror Attack Is Coming to the USA
It's a matter of when, not if.
It is not surprising that an Islamic extremist massacred fifteen people in New Orleans in the early hours of New Year’s Day, or that a potential link exists between that attack and the explosive-packed truck that detonated in Las Vegas a few hours later.
The only surprise is that the USA has not yet been the target of more numerous and more deadly attacks inspired by Islamist ideology.
Consider the following facts:
In 2012, the United States House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management reported that Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and other extremist actors had developed alliances with governments and organized crime cartels in Latin America. For at least two decades, these relationships have provided terrorist organizations with the ability to transport personnel and munitions to South America, and then into the United States through Mexico.
Media campaigns directed at American youth have normalized jihadist messaging and fostered sympathy for terrorist groups among young people in the United States.
Islamic extremists have developed effective tactics for guerrilla warfare against a modern state, as demonstrated by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
The U.S. intelligence community is focused on the threat of politically-motivated domestic violent extremists (DVEs), rather than the risk of jihadist terrorism.
The U.S. public is highly polarized, creating an opportunity for widespread destabilization through terrorism.
However bad you think this problem is, be assured: it’s a lot worse than that. Let’s take a closer look at the key risk factors.
The Crime/Terror Nexus in Latin America
Terrorist organizations, including Hamas and Hezbollah, have been, since the mid-1980s, establishing bases of operation in adversarial nations such as Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and Bolivia.
An integral part of these efforts has been the development of symbiotic relationships between extremist groups and powerful drug cartels. Assisting cartels with narcotics trafficking, money laundering, and weapons procurement provides jihadist groups with a source of income; it also allows terrorists to move their personnel and equipment into the United States using the same methods routinely employed for drug smuggling and human trafficking.
Described a decade ago as “an emerging tier-one national security priority,” this issue has steadily gotten worse. During the Biden-Harris administration, thousands of “special interest aliens” (SIAs) – undocumented individuals who pose a potential threat to national security – have been stopped at the U.S. – Mexico border, and dozens of such individuals have been arrested inside the United States.
It is unknown how many terrorists have not been caught, but the number is estimated to be in the thousands, making the presence of sleeper cells within the United States a virtual certainty.
Information Warfare
Since the 1980s, Islamist groups have used disinformation and propaganda techniques to foster anti-Western and pro-Islamist sentiment among American youth. The impact of this effort is now evident. Survey data shows that more than 30% of respondents under the age of 34 say they support Hamas in its war against the civilian population of Israel.
Along the same lines, mass protests on college campuses and in major cities have included signs and flags promoting Hamas and Hezbollah. These protests also often feature chants and speakers promoting violence against the United States. The danger of this radicalizing influence, particularly on non-Muslim youth, has been largely overlooked, and therefore the true scope of the problem is unknown.
Modern Guerrilla Tactics
When Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza on October 7, 2023, it executed a detailed plan that included the deployment of kamikaze drones against Israeli defenses, a multi-pronged assault on civilian centers by ground forces, the use of ultralight aviation equipment to breach border fences, and a tactical retreat with abducted hostages into hidden tunnels.
Devastating as the attack was for Israel, it can be viewed as merely a test-run for a similar attack against the United States.
Virtually the same playbook, using cartel tunnels, could be used to invade Texas or Arizona from Mexico, especially if it were coordinated with attacks by sleeper cells in metropolitan areas elsewhere in the country.
U.S. Overconfidence and Complacency
The U.S. intelligence community has expressed a broad consensus that there is currently a low risk of Islamic terrorism in the United States, particularly compared to the dangers posed by politically-motivated domestic terrorists. Officials share a widely-held opinion that, while the possibility of low-impact, “inspired attacks” by jihadist sympathizers (such as the one in New Orleans) are a concern, foreign-based organizations lack the capability to launch a large-scale assault on U.S. soil.
However, the decrease in terrorist activity over the last decade may not represent a diminished threat, but rather a deliberate effort to lull the United States into a false sense of security, just as it was before 9/11, and just as Israel was prior to the October 7 attack.
One characteristic of Islamist thought is the perception of jihad as an effort that spans generations. While Westerners tend to be impatient, thinking in terms of months or years, our adversaries play the long game. Taking decades to build sleeper cells and support networks, while fostering public support and waiting for the perfect time to launch a major attack, would be perfectly acceptable to many Islamic extremists.
Group Polarization
Survey data shows that Americans have experienced an unprecedented loss of trust in major institutions, including Congress, the U.S. Supreme Court, and the police, as well as a diminished tolerance for those with different opinions on political and social issues. Over 35% percent of adults believe the United States is likely to have a civil war within ten years, and over 50% believe that there will be a total economic collapse within the same timeframe.
This tense and fractious environment creates a force-multiplier effect for terrorists, whose goal is to destabilize a target population and undermine its institutions. According to a report by the Institute for the Study of War, Islamic extremist organizations “are more than terrorist groups; they are insurgencies … [that] seek to take the war into the West to fulfill their grand strategic objective of establishing a global caliphate.”
The phrase “Death to America” is not just a rallying cry to murder U.S. citizens, it is an exhortation to destroy the United States as an entity. Using violence to create an environment of discord and chaos in which Americans are pitted against each other – even if only temporarily – would be regarded by Islamic extremists as a major step toward that goal.
What’s Next?
Although U.S. officials are confident that the nation is largely safe from Islamic terrorism, decades of groundwork by Islamic extremist groups both within the United States and in Latin America has culminated in an unprecedented opportunity to launch a devastating, multi-pronged terror attack on an already-fractious U.S. population.
While the scope and intensity of jihadist violence is impossible to predict with certainty, it is likely that one or more Islamic extremist groups will seize this opportunity. If they do not, it will not be because of a lack of capability, but because they are patiently preparing for an even better time to strike.
Agree with the threat. Of Muslims in the US, the majority believe jihadist terrorism is justified (Bryan Dean Wright, 1/2/25). Is it possible that a grand multi pronged attack would unite Americans, rather than propogate more division?